According to @Andre_Dragosch, S&P 500 equity risk premia have recently turned negative, implying a discount and signaling investors are accepting lower expected returns on equities versus risk-free yields, as shown in his chart, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He states discounts could steepen similar to the 1980s because US Treasury bonds are increasingly perceived as riskier than US equities, source: @Andre_Dragosch. For traders, this observation supports focusing on equity beta over duration and monitoring BTC and ETH correlation with the S&P 500 and real yields to gauge risk appetite shifts, source: @Andre_Dragosch. A key watchpoint is the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and US Treasury yields that underpins the equity risk premium in his exhibit, source: @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @rovercrc, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates soon and record-high US money supply and national debt could accelerate a liquidity flywheel into Bitcoin (BTC) (source: @rovercrc on X, Aug 25, 2025). Traders should verify policy timing and guidance directly via the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statements, minutes, and economic projections before positioning (source: Federal Reserve). For confirmation, monitor US real yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY); sustained declines often coincide with stronger risk-asset performance during easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review). Track BTC market plumbing around meetings: spot volumes, perpetual funding, and CME futures open interest to gauge if capital is rotating into crypto on policy changes (source: CME Group; Glassnode). If the Fed maintains restrictive policy and real yields or DXY rise, downside pressure on BTC historically increases, so define invalidation levels and adjust position sizing accordingly (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin (BTC) is up roughly 450% and Gold is up about 105% in under three years, highlighting persistent strength in inflation-hedge assets as markets price elevated inflation (source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Aug 23, 2025). The Kobeissi Letter also notes Gold has been a leading indicator for months, implying continued leadership from hard assets and potential relative-strength support for BTC on dips (source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Aug 23, 2025). For trading, this supports momentum-and-buy-the-dip tactics in BTC and XAU while monitoring U.S. CPI and market-based inflation expectations to confirm the regime and managing risk against spikes in real yields and U.S. dollar strength (source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Aug 23, 2025).

According to Andre Dragosch, BTC accelerates when U.S. governance quality deteriorates and the dollar weakens, implying a risk-hedge bid for crypto during macro stress (source: Andre Dragosch on X, Aug 17, 2025). Historically, BTC has shown extended periods of negative 90-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index, indicating that USD weakness often coincided with BTC strength for multi-week windows (source: Kaiko Research market updates 2023-2024). In Q4 2023, a drop in DXY from the mid-100s was accompanied by a sharp BTC rally, illustrating the inverse USD–BTC relationship in practice (source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and Coin Metrics price series, Q4 2023). BTC has also tended to move inversely with U.S. real yields, with declines in 10-year TIPS yields aligning with broader risk-on behavior in digital assets (source: Coin Metrics and Glassnode research briefs 2022-2024). Traders commonly monitor DXY, 10-year real yields, and Treasury volatility via the MOVE Index to time BTC breakouts around policy or liquidity shocks (source: Coinbase Institutional weekly markets commentary 2023-2024).

According to @username, the US treasury ETF $TLT is showing a bullish setup as it forms a weekly swing low, with consensus expecting US long end yields to rise. However, real yields remain at 2% and core inflation (CPI) is projected to decline further due to a recession led by the housing sector, with shelter making up 36% of CPI. This macro backdrop is driving positive sentiment for US treasuries and $TLT, which could attract traders seeking safe-haven assets or portfolio hedges. Source: @username on Twitter.

According to Miles Deutscher, the DeFi sector has been witnessing a resurgence in interest since the start of the year, similar to the pattern observed last summer when market activity slows down. This shift in focus is attributed to investors turning their attention to projects offering tangible yields and revenues during periods of reduced speculation. This trend may indicate a preference for more sustainable DeFi projects in trading strategies. [Source: Miles Deutscher's Twitter]

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the influx of bonds into the market has led to falling bond prices and rising yields, an effect attributed to basic supply and demand dynamics. This trend has resulted in real yields moving higher consistently since 2022, indicating that inflation is not the primary factor driving the recent increase in rates.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the increase in bond supply has led to a decrease in bond prices and an increase in yields due to simple supply and demand dynamics. They highlight that real yields have consistently risen since 2022, indicating that inflation is not the main factor driving the recent increase in interest rates. This suggests traders should consider the impact of bond supply on yield trends rather than focusing solely on inflation metrics.