According to the source, gold hit a new all-time high near $3,725 today, a move traders should verify against CME futures and major spot feeds before acting, according to CME Group pricing practices. BTC’s 30–90 day correlation with gold is typically low and regime-dependent, so correlation spikes during macro stress are the key signal to monitor, according to Kaiko research and CME data. A sustained gold breakout often aligns with softer US real yields, a backdrop that has historically supported risk assets including BTC via liquidity effects, according to FRED and Bloomberg Intelligence. For confirmation on crypto flows, traders track US-listed spot bitcoin ETF net subscriptions and premiums, as persistent inflows have coincided with upside momentum in prior cycles, according to CoinShares fund flow reports. Options positioning matters as well: rising BTC implied volatility and call skew often precede trend expansions, according to Deribit and Amberdata. Dollar context is critical; watch XAUUSD versus DXY and 10-year TIPS yields to gauge whether the move is USD weakness or risk hedging, according to FRED and ICE Data Services.

According to @AltcoinGordon, BTC could see parabolic upside when it "catches up" with M2 money supply, flagging a potential liquidity-driven move across crypto, source: @AltcoinGordon on X. M2 is a broad US money supply gauge used to track liquidity conditions that influence risk assets, source: Federal Reserve H.6 statistical release. During 2020–2021, US M2 expanded rapidly while BTC rose from roughly $6.5k in Mar 2020 to about $69k by Nov 2021, suggesting a supportive liquidity regime for crypto, source: Federal Reserve H.6 and CoinGecko historical data. In the same period, the Federal Reserve balance sheet expanded from about $4.2T (Mar 2020) to roughly $8.6T (late 2021), underscoring abundant USD liquidity, source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release. Crypto-native liquidity also surged as total stablecoin market cap grew from around $5B in early 2020 to over $150B by late 2021, reinforcing BTC’s bull phase, source: DeFiLlama stablecoin data. When real yields rose and liquidity tightened in 2022, BTC fell from ~$69k to near ~$16k by Nov 2022, illustrating sensitivity to liquidity withdrawal, source: U.S. Treasury TIPS real yields and CoinGecko historical data. Trading takeaway: monitor US M2 trend, Fed balance sheet net liquidity, and stablecoin net issuance as confirmation signals for any renewed BTC momentum, source: Federal Reserve H.6, Federal Reserve H.4.1, and DeFiLlama. Risk note: if M2 stagnates or contracts and real yields rise, historical patterns show weaker crypto risk appetite, source: Federal Reserve H.6 and U.S. Treasury TIPS real yields.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates three times in 2025. In the prior easing cycle that began on July 31, 2019, the S&P 500 went on to set fresh all-time highs by November 2019, signaling stronger risk appetite, per S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historically, falling policy rates compress real yields and support risk-taking, per Federal Reserve Board policy documentation and U.S. Treasury TIPS data. Looser policy also tends to coincide with a softer U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has been a tailwind for BTC and ETH in past cycles, per ICE U.S. Dollar Index data and Coin Metrics correlations. For positioning, traders can track 10-year real yields, DXY, and stablecoin net issuance as near-term liquidity gauges, per U.S. Treasury data, ICE benchmarks, and DeFiLlama analytics.

According to the source, gold was reported to have reached a new all-time high of $3,680 intraday; traders should treat this as a headline to be cross-checked on regulated benchmarks, source: the source post. Verify with XAUUSD spot feeds and COMEX front-month futures before execution, as liquidity and spreads can be volatile on such prints, source: LBMA and CME Group. Historically, gold rallies align with falling US real yields and a softer dollar, so monitor TIPS-implied real rates and DXY for confirmation, source: World Gold Council and Federal Reserve and ICE Data Indices. BTC’s correlation with gold has been low to moderate and time-varying, so assess BTC order book liquidity and options open interest for spillover risk rather than assuming a direct move, source: Coin Metrics and Deribit.

According to @rovercrc, U.S. inflation may be coiling up, putting CPI risk back in focus for crypto positioning, source: @rovercrc on X. The CPI and Core CPI prints that anchor inflation trading are released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and their schedule and component weights guide market expectations, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Federal Reserve’s longer-run goal is 2% inflation as measured by PCE, so persistent inflation pressures raise the likelihood of restrictive policy for longer, which is central to risk management for BTC exposure, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ahead of CPI, traders track TIPS breakevens, real yields, and CME FedWatch rate probabilities to gauge the rates and dollar impulse that can transmit into crypto volatility, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); CME Group. Macro announcement surprises are documented to move asset prices and intraday volatility, reinforcing the case for event-risk controls around CPI time for crypto trades, source: Federal Reserve research on macroeconomic announcements and asset prices.

According to @rovercrc, U.S. money supply is rising and Bitcoin could be the next beneficiary. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED, the M2 series M2SL and its 3‑month annualized trend are the primary confirmations traders should check before positioning. According to Fidelity Digital Assets research, Bitcoin tends to perform better when liquidity expands and real yields fall, so traders can monitor M2 momentum alongside 10‑year TIPS real yields and rate‑cut odds from CME FedWatch to time entries. According to Glassnode analytics, changes in exchange flows and stablecoin supply growth can validate whether macro liquidity is actually rotating into crypto risk assets like BTC.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, S&P 500 equity risk premia have recently turned negative, implying a discount and signaling investors are accepting lower expected returns on equities versus risk-free yields, as shown in his chart, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He states discounts could steepen similar to the 1980s because US Treasury bonds are increasingly perceived as riskier than US equities, source: @Andre_Dragosch. For traders, this observation supports focusing on equity beta over duration and monitoring BTC and ETH correlation with the S&P 500 and real yields to gauge risk appetite shifts, source: @Andre_Dragosch. A key watchpoint is the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and US Treasury yields that underpins the equity risk premium in his exhibit, source: @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @rovercrc, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates soon and record-high US money supply and national debt could accelerate a liquidity flywheel into Bitcoin (BTC) (source: @rovercrc on X, Aug 25, 2025). Traders should verify policy timing and guidance directly via the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statements, minutes, and economic projections before positioning (source: Federal Reserve). For confirmation, monitor US real yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY); sustained declines often coincide with stronger risk-asset performance during easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review). Track BTC market plumbing around meetings: spot volumes, perpetual funding, and CME futures open interest to gauge if capital is rotating into crypto on policy changes (source: CME Group; Glassnode). If the Fed maintains restrictive policy and real yields or DXY rise, downside pressure on BTC historically increases, so define invalidation levels and adjust position sizing accordingly (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin (BTC) is up roughly 450% and Gold is up about 105% in under three years, highlighting persistent strength in inflation-hedge assets as markets price elevated inflation (source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Aug 23, 2025). The Kobeissi Letter also notes Gold has been a leading indicator for months, implying continued leadership from hard assets and potential relative-strength support for BTC on dips (source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Aug 23, 2025). For trading, this supports momentum-and-buy-the-dip tactics in BTC and XAU while monitoring U.S. CPI and market-based inflation expectations to confirm the regime and managing risk against spikes in real yields and U.S. dollar strength (source: The Kobeissi Letter, X, Aug 23, 2025).

According to Andre Dragosch, BTC accelerates when U.S. governance quality deteriorates and the dollar weakens, implying a risk-hedge bid for crypto during macro stress (source: Andre Dragosch on X, Aug 17, 2025). Historically, BTC has shown extended periods of negative 90-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index, indicating that USD weakness often coincided with BTC strength for multi-week windows (source: Kaiko Research market updates 2023-2024). In Q4 2023, a drop in DXY from the mid-100s was accompanied by a sharp BTC rally, illustrating the inverse USD–BTC relationship in practice (source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and Coin Metrics price series, Q4 2023). BTC has also tended to move inversely with U.S. real yields, with declines in 10-year TIPS yields aligning with broader risk-on behavior in digital assets (source: Coin Metrics and Glassnode research briefs 2022-2024). Traders commonly monitor DXY, 10-year real yields, and Treasury volatility via the MOVE Index to time BTC breakouts around policy or liquidity shocks (source: Coinbase Institutional weekly markets commentary 2023-2024).

According to @username, the US treasury ETF $TLT is showing a bullish setup as it forms a weekly swing low, with consensus expecting US long end yields to rise. However, real yields remain at 2% and core inflation (CPI) is projected to decline further due to a recession led by the housing sector, with shelter making up 36% of CPI. This macro backdrop is driving positive sentiment for US treasuries and $TLT, which could attract traders seeking safe-haven assets or portfolio hedges. Source: @username on Twitter.

According to Miles Deutscher, the DeFi sector has been witnessing a resurgence in interest since the start of the year, similar to the pattern observed last summer when market activity slows down. This shift in focus is attributed to investors turning their attention to projects offering tangible yields and revenues during periods of reduced speculation. This trend may indicate a preference for more sustainable DeFi projects in trading strategies. [Source: Miles Deutscher's Twitter]

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the influx of bonds into the market has led to falling bond prices and rising yields, an effect attributed to basic supply and demand dynamics. This trend has resulted in real yields moving higher consistently since 2022, indicating that inflation is not the primary factor driving the recent increase in rates.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the increase in bond supply has led to a decrease in bond prices and an increase in yields due to simple supply and demand dynamics. They highlight that real yields have consistently risen since 2022, indicating that inflation is not the main factor driving the recent increase in interest rates. This suggests traders should consider the impact of bond supply on yield trends rather than focusing solely on inflation metrics.