According to @AltcoinDaily, the question is whether experts overstated the BTC and global M2 linkage, and the data shows a regime-dependent relationship. Source: @AltcoinDaily. In 2020–2021, BTC rallied alongside a historic expansion in broad money across major economies and rising US M2, indicating a positive liquidity beta. Source: IMF International Financial Statistics broad money series; Federal Reserve FRED M2SL; CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Rate. In 2022, US M2 turned negative year over year and global liquidity tightened, while BTC fell more than 60% from its peak, consistent with liquidity sensitivity. Source: Federal Reserve FRED M2SL; BIS Global Liquidity Indicators and Quarterly Review; CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Rate. In 2023–2024, the correlation weakened as crypto-specific catalysts such as the approval of US spot bitcoin ETFs and a recovery in stablecoin free float supported BTC despite uneven broad money growth. Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission order approving spot bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10, 2024; Coin Metrics stablecoin supply data; BIS Quarterly Review. For trading, use global M2 as medium-term context but monitor near-term liquidity gauges including the Fed balance sheet (H.4.1), Treasury General Account and ON RRP, the dollar index and 10-year real yields, and aggregate stablecoin supply for directional signals. Source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release; U.S. Treasury FiscalData TGA; Federal Reserve Overnight Reverse Repo data; Federal Reserve trade-weighted dollar index; U.S. Treasury real yield series; Coin Metrics. Historically, BTC tends to perform when net dollar liquidity rises and the dollar weakens, so align risk with liquidity inflections and macro event dates. Source: Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury data; CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Reference Rate.

According to @DowdEdward, a Nov 13, 2025 X post highlights four stress points—expensive food, disappearing jobs, unattainable home ownership, and rampant crime—implying rapid change (source: @DowdEdward on X). Verified data context: Food prices remain above pre‑pandemic levels even as YoY inflation has cooled (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI food index). Labor-market momentum has eased as job openings fell from 2022 highs and payroll growth moderated (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS and nonfarm payrolls). Housing affordability is near multi‑decade lows given elevated mortgage rates and high home prices (source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey; National Association of Realtors Housing Affordability Index; S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller). Crime trends are mixed, with violent crime lower in early 2024 versus 2023 at the national level (source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports). Trading implications: Sticky essentials and weak housing support higher-for-longer real yields and a firm USD—conditions that have historically pressured BTC and high‑beta crypto during tightening phases (source: Kaiko Research 2024; Coin Metrics correlation studies; Federal Reserve Economic Data for real yields; ICE Data Indices for DXY). Conversely, growth rollover and policy easing or balance‑sheet expansion have historically lifted BTC and ETH via liquidity channels (source: Federal Reserve balance‑sheet data; Coin Metrics BTC/ETH price history). Key signals to watch: 10Y TIPS real yield, DXY trend, BLS NFP/JOLTS prints, 30‑year mortgage rate, and FBI crime updates for consumer sentiment impact (source: Federal Reserve Economic Data; ICE Data Indices; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Freddie Mac; FBI).

According to the source, 750 billion dollars was added to gold’s market capitalization today via a public post on X dated Nov 11, 2025, indicating an unusually large single-day move in XAU exposure, source: public social media post on X dated Nov 11, 2025. Based on World Gold Council estimates that the total above-ground gold value was roughly 12 to 13 trillion dollars in 2023, a 750 billion dollar increase implies about a 5 to 6 percent one-day gain, which is extreme by historical standards and typically coincides with falling real yields or risk-off flows, source: World Gold Council research on above-ground gold value and gold sensitivity to real yields. For crypto, BTC has periodically tracked gold during stress, with Kaiko reporting the 90-day BTC–gold correlation rising toward 0.5 during the 2023 US banking turmoil, so traders should watch BTCUSD alongside XAUUSD and the US 10-year TIPS real yield for potential spillovers, source: Kaiko market research and US Treasury TIPS-derived real yield data. If the gold jump reflects lower real yields, that backdrop has historically supported both gold and BTC by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making DXY and real yield momentum key macro drivers to monitor for BTC’s digital gold narrative, source: World Gold Council analysis on real yields and gold and Fidelity Digital Assets research on macro drivers of BTC. Near-term trading checklist includes monitoring XAUUSD spot versus GC futures basis, BTC–gold rolling correlation, DXY trend, and liquidity conditions, with tighter risk limits given potential volatility clustering after such a large single-day move, source: CME Group contract specifications for GC futures and Kaiko correlation metrics.

According to @StockMKTNewz, J.P. Morgan Private Bank expects gold to top $5000 by the end of 2026, as reported by Bloomberg; this frames a multi‑year bullish thesis for hedging and macro allocations. source: Bloomberg For crypto traders, periods of rising gold have coincided with stronger BTC at times, with the BTC–gold correlation turning positive during stress episodes in 2023–2024. source: Kaiko Research Gold tends to strengthen when US real yields fall, a key macro driver that also influences cross‑asset risk appetite and hedging flows. source: World Gold Council JPMorgan strategists have characterized Bitcoin as a high‑beta alternative to gold within store‑of‑value allocations, implying potential cross‑asset spillovers if gold rerates materially. source: JPMorgan Global Markets Strategy Into 2026, traders can monitor US real yield trends and gold ETF flows as confirmation signals for the gold thesis, alongside BTC sensitivity to real yields and safe‑haven demand. source: World Gold Council; Kaiko Research

According to @DowdEdward, he highlighted the idea of a perpetual bond with no maturity by likening it to rent and referenced an Andrew Yang post on X, drawing attention to renewed discussion around perpetual debt structures for funding needs (source: @DowdEdward on X). Perpetual bonds are fixed-income instruments with no redemption date that pay coupons indefinitely, with historical precedents such as British Consols issued by the UK government (source: Bank of England). For traders, the key lens is duration and term premium—changes in the perceived structure of government debt can affect long-end yields and discount rates for risk assets, a dynamic documented in Federal Reserve term premium research and the ACM Term Premium series (source: Federal Reserve). Crypto markets often react to shifts in real yields and liquidity; BTC and ETH have shown sensitivity to moves in the US 10-year TIPS yield that traders monitor alongside the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate during macro rate repricings (source: Federal Reserve FRED and CME Group).

According to PANews, NYDIG head of research Greg Cipolaro states that Bitcoin has evolved into a barometer of global liquidity, with a strengthening inverse relationship to real yields, while inflation is not the primary driver of BTC price action (source: NYDIG). NYDIG notes that traders should prioritize tracking real yields and liquidity conditions over CPI prints when assessing BTC direction, as BTC increasingly mirrors shifts in global liquidity and the level of real rates (source: NYDIG). NYDIG indicates that easing real yields and expanding liquidity are typically constructive for BTC, while rising real yields and tighter liquidity are headwinds that can pressure BTC performance (source: NYDIG).

According to the source, a social post asks which reaches 5000 first, ETH or gold, framing a relative trade between a high-beta crypto asset and a macro-driven commodity; source: original social post. For ETH, the EIP-1559 fee-burn mechanism reduces net supply as on-chain demand rises, tightening float and increasing sensitivity to network activity; source: Ethereum Foundation EIP-1559 documentation. U.S. spot ETH ETFs enable creations and redemptions that can convert traditional inflows into underlying ETH demand and affect spot-futures basis dynamics; source: U.S. SEC spot ETH ETF approval orders and issuer prospectuses. Proof-of-Stake staking removes ETH from liquid circulation and pays protocol rewards, which can amplify price impact from incremental flow changes; source: Ethereum Foundation Proof-of-Stake and Beacon Chain documentation. For gold, price performance is closely tied to U.S. real yields and the dollar, with lower real yields historically supportive for gold; source: Federal Reserve economic data and World Gold Council research. Central bank net gold purchases have been a persistent demand pillar, supporting dips and tightening available float; source: World Gold Council quarterly demand trends. Traders comparing paths to 5000 should track ETH ETF net creations, gas burn and L2 activity alongside U.S. real yields, dollar index levels, and central bank gold buying to calibrate relative momentum; source: ETF issuer flow reports, Ethereum network statistics, Federal Reserve data, and World Gold Council updates.

According to the source, traders are reassessing crypto’s role as a currency-debasement hedge and should track six data-backed signals for positioning and risk. Lower US real yields tend to support BTC and gold, while higher real yields pressure both, making the 10-year TIPS trend a primary input for timing risk-on entries, source: Federal Reserve FRED; Bank for International Settlements Working Papers. Sustained USD weakness (DXY downtrend) historically aligns with stronger BTC performance, so monitor weekly DXY momentum and breakouts, source: Federal Reserve; International Monetary Fund research. Growth in aggregate stablecoin market capitalization often precedes improved crypto liquidity and risk appetite, useful as a leading indicator for BTC trend strength, source: Federal Reserve FEDS Notes; Chainalysis research. A widening positive CME BTC futures basis alongside rising open interest signals increasing institutional demand, while deeply negative funding and shrinking basis flag stress and liquidation risk, source: CME Group; US CFTC Commitments of Traders. Elevated miner-to-exchange flows and compressed hashprice warn of near-term sell pressure, whereas declining outflows and improving hashprice tend to ease supply overhang, source: Glassnode; Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance. A downside reversal in the Gold/BTC ratio can mark rotation back into BTC from gold, while a persistent uptrend favors gold over crypto in debasement hedges, source: London Bullion Market Association; CF Benchmarks; TradingView. BTC’s fixed supply schedule post-2024 halving reduces annual issuance to roughly 0.9%, reinforcing the long-term scarcity thesis versus fiat debasement for multi-year allocations, source: Bitcoin.org whitepaper; Bitcoin Core documentation.

According to the source, gold continues to reach new all-time highs while Bitcoin (BTC) shows a strong correlation, highlighting active positioning in inflation-hedge trades, source: the source.

According to Altcoin Daily, BTC should be valued at least one-third of gold’s total market capitalization, which the author says implies roughly a 4x upside from here. source: Altcoin Daily on X Oct 14, 2025 To benchmark the claim, traders can estimate gold’s aggregate value using the World Gold Council’s above-ground stock data and the LBMA gold price to translate tonnage into market capitalization. source: World Gold Council Gold facts and above-ground stocks; LBMA Gold Price USD One-third of that gold valuation can then be compared to Bitcoin’s live market capitalization from TradingView, with an implied per-coin target derived by dividing by circulating supply reported by institutional data providers such as Glassnode. source: TradingView market capitalization; Glassnode circulating supply Key catalysts to monitor for convergence or divergence include the BTC/XAU ratio, net creations and redemptions in U.S. spot BTC ETFs enabled since January 2024, and movements in real yields that historically influence gold demand. source: TradingView BTC/XAU; U.S. SEC orders approving spot Bitcoin ETFs Jan 2024; World Gold Council research on gold and real rates; Federal Reserve FRED TIPS yield series

According to @rovercrc, ETH will follow global liquidity, highlighting macro liquidity as a key driver to monitor for ETH price trends and risk management, source: X post by @rovercrc dated Oct 10, 2025. For actionable tracking, monitor four core liquidity gauges that update regularly: Federal Reserve H.4.1 balance sheet factors affecting reserve balances, European Central Bank consolidated weekly financial statement, Bank of Japan balance sheet statistics, and BIS Global Liquidity Indicators for cross-border credit, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System H.4.1 release; European Central Bank weekly financial statement; Bank of Japan Statistics; Bank for International Settlements Global Liquidity Indicators. As tactical proxies that inform dollar conditions and real rates used by macro traders in crypto workflows, follow the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY and U.S. Treasury 10-year TIPS real yields for execution timing and sizing inputs, source: Intercontinental Exchange DXY index materials and levels; U.S. Department of the Treasury real yield curve rates.

According to @rovercrc, gold hit $4,000 for the first time and he suggests Bitcoin could be next, a claim that may influence BTC positioning if validated, source: Crypto Rover on X, Oct 7, 2025. If accurate, $4,000 would exceed the 2024 all-time high near $2,480/oz by roughly 61%, underscoring the need for independent confirmation, source: World Gold Council 2024 price statistics. Traders should verify XAUUSD spot and COMEX GC front-month prices against the LBMA Gold Price benchmark before adjusting risk, source: CME Group contract specifications and LBMA benchmark methodology. Historically, strong gold advances often coincide with falling US 10-year real yields, a backdrop associated with improved crypto liquidity and periodic BTC outperformance, source: FRED 10-year TIPS real yield data and Coin Metrics cross-asset correlation research. For BTC, monitor the 20- and 50-day moving averages, the year-to-date high, and the 30-day rolling BTC–gold correlation for confirmation or divergence, source: TradingView technical indicators and Coin Metrics correlation dataset. Risk note: narratives around unverified price prints can widen spreads and slippage across BTC perpetuals and spot books, source: Binance and OKX market microstructure disclosures.

According to Miles Deutscher, BTC’s nominal all-time highs are less meaningful in a weakening dollar regime, implying that debasement supports upside momentum for BTC, equities, and gold, which traders should factor into positioning. Source: Miles Deutscher on X, Oct 5, 2025. U.S. consumer prices have risen roughly 20% from early 2020 to mid 2024, eroding purchasing power and making nominal highs less reflective of real returns, which provides macro context for Deutscher’s claim. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data. Traders can monitor the U.S. Dollar Index DXY as a proxy; after a 2022 peak the index moderated into 2023–2024, and research highlights an inverse BTC–DXY relationship that makes continued dollar weakness a potential tailwind for BTC. Source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index history and Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. For confirmation, track real yields via the 10-year TIPS rate because rising real yields have historically pressured risk assets while falling real yields have supported crypto trend momentum. Source: Federal Reserve data on 10-year TIPS and Bloomberg Intelligence cross-asset studies. Net takeaway is to align BTC bias with dollar trend and real-yield direction while validating the inflation-hedge narrative highlighted by Deutscher. Source: Miles Deutscher on X and Federal Reserve data.

According to the source, a social media post attributed a statement to Michael Novogratz that a dovish Federal Reserve chair could drive Bitcoin (BTC) materially higher; the specific 200,000 dollar target in that post cannot be independently verified here. source: public X post dated 2025-09-27 In trading terms, a dovish shift typically means lower policy rates or slower balance sheet runoff, easing financial conditions that historically support risk assets including crypto. source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements and H.4.1 factors affecting reserve balances Traders can gauge policy path via market implied odds to anticipate crypto beta, using CME FedWatch to track expected rate cuts that often move USD and risk momentum. source: CME Group FedWatch Tool Two macro confirmation signals for BTC risk-on are declining U.S. real yields and expanding Fed balance sheet, which traders monitor as liquidity and discount-rate proxies. source: U.S. Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates; Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release Execution-wise, watch DXY trend and U.S. 2-year yield breaks for potential BTC directional triggers around policy communication windows. source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index factsheet; U.S. Treasury daily yield data Key risk is a hawkish surprise or sticky inflation that keeps policy restrictive, which has historically pressured risk assets and increased crypto volatility. source: Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and Summary of Economic Projections

According to the source, Michael Saylor stated that Bitcoin has emerged as a digital gold, reinforcing BTC’s store-of-value narrative and directing traders to track Bitcoin-versus-gold relative performance and U.S. real yields for positioning; source: Sep 24, 2025 social post. For equity exposure linked to this thesis, traders often use MicroStrategy (MSTR) as a high-beta proxy due to its significant Bitcoin treasury disclosed in corporate materials; source: MicroStrategy investor relations materials, 2024. Key datapoints to monitor when trading the digital-gold narrative include the gold/BTC ratio and the 10-year TIPS real yield, which commonly anchor store-of-value discussions in MicroStrategy’s published commentary; source: MicroStrategy public statements and investor materials, 2020–2024.

According to the source, gold hit a new all-time high near $3,725 today, a move traders should verify against CME futures and major spot feeds before acting, according to CME Group pricing practices. BTC’s 30–90 day correlation with gold is typically low and regime-dependent, so correlation spikes during macro stress are the key signal to monitor, according to Kaiko research and CME data. A sustained gold breakout often aligns with softer US real yields, a backdrop that has historically supported risk assets including BTC via liquidity effects, according to FRED and Bloomberg Intelligence. For confirmation on crypto flows, traders track US-listed spot bitcoin ETF net subscriptions and premiums, as persistent inflows have coincided with upside momentum in prior cycles, according to CoinShares fund flow reports. Options positioning matters as well: rising BTC implied volatility and call skew often precede trend expansions, according to Deribit and Amberdata. Dollar context is critical; watch XAUUSD versus DXY and 10-year TIPS yields to gauge whether the move is USD weakness or risk hedging, according to FRED and ICE Data Services.

According to @AltcoinGordon, BTC could see parabolic upside when it "catches up" with M2 money supply, flagging a potential liquidity-driven move across crypto, source: @AltcoinGordon on X. M2 is a broad US money supply gauge used to track liquidity conditions that influence risk assets, source: Federal Reserve H.6 statistical release. During 2020–2021, US M2 expanded rapidly while BTC rose from roughly $6.5k in Mar 2020 to about $69k by Nov 2021, suggesting a supportive liquidity regime for crypto, source: Federal Reserve H.6 and CoinGecko historical data. In the same period, the Federal Reserve balance sheet expanded from about $4.2T (Mar 2020) to roughly $8.6T (late 2021), underscoring abundant USD liquidity, source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release. Crypto-native liquidity also surged as total stablecoin market cap grew from around $5B in early 2020 to over $150B by late 2021, reinforcing BTC’s bull phase, source: DeFiLlama stablecoin data. When real yields rose and liquidity tightened in 2022, BTC fell from ~$69k to near ~$16k by Nov 2022, illustrating sensitivity to liquidity withdrawal, source: U.S. Treasury TIPS real yields and CoinGecko historical data. Trading takeaway: monitor US M2 trend, Fed balance sheet net liquidity, and stablecoin net issuance as confirmation signals for any renewed BTC momentum, source: Federal Reserve H.6, Federal Reserve H.4.1, and DeFiLlama. Risk note: if M2 stagnates or contracts and real yields rise, historical patterns show weaker crypto risk appetite, source: Federal Reserve H.6 and U.S. Treasury TIPS real yields.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates three times in 2025. In the prior easing cycle that began on July 31, 2019, the S&P 500 went on to set fresh all-time highs by November 2019, signaling stronger risk appetite, per S&P Dow Jones Indices. Historically, falling policy rates compress real yields and support risk-taking, per Federal Reserve Board policy documentation and U.S. Treasury TIPS data. Looser policy also tends to coincide with a softer U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has been a tailwind for BTC and ETH in past cycles, per ICE U.S. Dollar Index data and Coin Metrics correlations. For positioning, traders can track 10-year real yields, DXY, and stablecoin net issuance as near-term liquidity gauges, per U.S. Treasury data, ICE benchmarks, and DeFiLlama analytics.

According to the source, gold was reported to have reached a new all-time high of $3,680 intraday; traders should treat this as a headline to be cross-checked on regulated benchmarks, source: the source post. Verify with XAUUSD spot feeds and COMEX front-month futures before execution, as liquidity and spreads can be volatile on such prints, source: LBMA and CME Group. Historically, gold rallies align with falling US real yields and a softer dollar, so monitor TIPS-implied real rates and DXY for confirmation, source: World Gold Council and Federal Reserve and ICE Data Indices. BTC’s correlation with gold has been low to moderate and time-varying, so assess BTC order book liquidity and options open interest for spillover risk rather than assuming a direct move, source: Coin Metrics and Deribit.

According to @rovercrc, U.S. inflation may be coiling up, putting CPI risk back in focus for crypto positioning, source: @rovercrc on X. The CPI and Core CPI prints that anchor inflation trading are released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and their schedule and component weights guide market expectations, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Federal Reserve’s longer-run goal is 2% inflation as measured by PCE, so persistent inflation pressures raise the likelihood of restrictive policy for longer, which is central to risk management for BTC exposure, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ahead of CPI, traders track TIPS breakevens, real yields, and CME FedWatch rate probabilities to gauge the rates and dollar impulse that can transmit into crypto volatility, source: U.S. Department of the Treasury; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); CME Group. Macro announcement surprises are documented to move asset prices and intraday volatility, reinforcing the case for event-risk controls around CPI time for crypto trades, source: Federal Reserve research on macroeconomic announcements and asset prices.